KSA: Dutch licensed gambling market shrank in 2025; online accounts rise in H1 2026

The Kansspelautoriteit's Marktscan 2025 and Monitoringsrapportage H1 2026 show a falling overall market BSR in 2025 driven by sharp declines in online casino and sports betting, while the number of licensed online accounts climbed to 1.48 million in the first half of 2026.

Verified facts

• Source: Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa) Marktscan over 2025 and Monitoringsrapportage over first half of 2026.
• Total market BSR (brutospelresultaat) for licensed Dutch market fell from €4.5 billion in 2024 to €4.1 billion in 2025.
• Online casino BSR declined by 18.2% year-on-year in 2025; online sports betting BSR declined by 30.2% in 2025.
• Ksa attributes part of the decline to participant‑protection measures introduced at the end of 2024 (for example, the net deposit limit).
• Land‑based market: BSR for slot machines in gaming arcades and hospitality fell by 4.7% in 2025; Holland Casino’s BSR rose by 2.8% in 2025, driven mainly by gaming machines rather than table games.
• Loteries saw a modest BSR decline of 1.8% in 2025 compared with 2024.
• Ksa’s monitoring report for H1 2026 shows licensed online gambling accounts rose to 1.48 million (from 1.38 million six months earlier).
• Ksa estimates about 490,000 people gamble in the Netherlands in a typical month; around 820,000 people gambled online at least once in H1 2026.
• Ksa notes the account growth may partly be due to the 2026 men’s World Cup and may also indicate users creating multiple accounts to circumvent per‑account deposit limits.
• Canalisation (percentage who gamble legally) by participant count is about 94%; canalisation by BSR is estimated to have risen from 54% in H2 2025 to 59% in H1 2026.
• Ksa cites LADIS data showing a 14% increase in people in treatment for problem gambling in 2025 versus 2024.
• Ipsos data included in the monitor: proportion of online gamblers judged non‑problematic is 65% in 2026, unchanged from 2025; number with high risk of gambling harm remained stable, low‑risk increased, moderate‑risk decreased.

GEOs and markets

Netherlands

Brands and organisations

Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa); Holland Casino; LADIS (Landelijk Alcohol en Drugs Informatie Systeem); Ipsos

Impact on media buyers

GameHub editorial analysis: For GameHub Partners media buyers: the Dutch licensed market is demonstrating event‑driven volatility and regulatory squeeze in online verticals. Paid acquisition and affiliate funnels that target NL audiences must prioritise destination compliance (deposit limits and messaging), traffic quality to licensed operators, and cohort measurement that separates event‑driven account spikes from sustainable user value. Expect higher scrutiny from regulators and rising treatment demand signalling elevated social‑responsibility risk when scaling campaigns into NL channels. Monitor canalisation metrics by both participant counts and BSR: the discrepancy suggests illegal channels represent outsized spend per user, creating both competitive and reputational risk if redirected traffic lands with unlicensed operators or clone sites. Operational checklist: verify per‑account limit handling in landing flows; tag and cohort World Cup–related acquisition paths; run payment and KYC QA aligned to NL rules; update whitelist/blacklist decisions against the Ksa published data.

GameHub comment

GameHub editorial analysis: Practical analysis for media buyers (approx. 400 words): The Ksa findings change the baseline assumptions for acquisition and compliance in the Netherlands. Two linked dynamics matter: demand volatility tied to major sports events and the after‑effect of strengthened participant‑protection rules introduced late 2024. The 2025 fall in overall BSR, driven mainly by online casino (-18.2%) and sports betting (-30.2%), shows that regulatory measures (net deposit limits and other protections) materially reduced gambling turnovers. That suppresses short‑term ROI on volume‑driven funnels and increases the importance of lifetime value (LTV) modelling that accounts for lower average player spend post‑policy change. At the same time, the H1 2026 rise in licensed online accounts to 1.48 million—despite no significant increase in the monthly gambling population—creates an operational red flag. Two likely explanations are a genuine event‑driven onboarding spike (the June World Cup) and users creating multiple accounts to circumvent per‑account deposit caps. For media buyers this means standard conversion KPIs (accounts created, first deposit) can be artificially inflated during events and by multi‑account behaviour; conversion quality checks should include post‑deposit activity, retention beyond cooling‑off windows, and correlation with KYC/payment anomalies. The canalisation split (94% by participant, 59% by BSR) is particularly relevant: legally channelled players account for most participants but generate proportionally less BSR than illicit channels. That implies that illegally channelled users tend to have higher stakes/losses. From an acquisition standpoint, paid inventory that routes high‑value users to unlicensed destinations increases AML and reputational exposure. Buyers should therefore tighten destination QA, exclude sources that cannot reliably route to licensed NL operators, and ensure creatives accurately reflect deposit limits and responsible‑gambling prompts. Finally, the rise in treatment numbers (LADIS) and Ipsos risk metrics underline escalating social‑responsibility exposure. Campaigns must include visible safer‑gambling messaging and operators’ compliant flows should be confirmed before scaling. In short: expect lower top‑line conversion efficiency under the new regulatory regime, require deeper post‑signup validation for account quality, and prioritise compliance and cohorted LTV measurement when buying NL traffic.

Editorial note: The “Verified facts” section reports the primary source. The impact and GameHub comment sections are editorial analysis, not claims made by the organiser.